Aluminum is the world's most-consumed non-ferrous metal, with a three-stage supply chain: bauxite mining (450 Mt/yr globally in 2024), alumina refining (142 Mt/yr), and primary aluminum smelting (72 Mt/yr). The 4:2:1 conversion ratio means the bauxite-to-metal chain is inherently energy and capital intensive. China dominates all three stages — 21% of bauxite, 59% of alumina refining, and 60% of aluminum smelting — making it the single largest influence on global aluminum pricing and supply.

The US industry is in a structural transition. Primary smelting capacity has declined to 1,360 kt/yr, with only two of four operating smelters running at full capacity in 2024; primary output dropped 11% to 670 kt. The US relies on imports for >75% of its bauxite and ~59% of its alumina, principally from Jamaica (bauxite) and Brazil (alumina). However, secondary production from scrap (about 3.6 Mt in 2024) substantially offsets primary import dependence, and apparent consumption net import reliance for all aluminum forms was 47%. The DOE's $500 million grant for a new smelter signals intent to rebuild domestic primary capacity.

Global bauxite reserves are enormous relative to demand — 29 billion tonnes at current 450 Mt/yr extraction equates to roughly 65 years of supply, and resources are estimated at 55-75 billion tonnes concentrated in Africa (32%), Oceania (23%), and South America (21%). Guinea holds the largest reserves (25.5%) and has become the world's largest bauxite producer. Aluminum is not classified as a critical mineral by the US or EU, reflecting its abundance and the recycling-driven resilience of supply, though the high energy intensity of primary smelting (roughly 14 MWh per tonne) means smelter location is determined primarily by electricity costs.