Potassium is an irreplaceable macronutrient for plant growth and human nutrition; no substitute exists. The global potash market is dominated by three countries — Canada (31.3%), Russia (18.8%), and Belarus (14.6%) — which together controlled nearly 65% of world mine output of 48 million tonnes K2O equivalent in 2024. Canada is the world's leading exporter, with the Saskatchewan Potash Basin holding the largest known reserves (1.1 billion tonnes K2O equivalent). World consumption reached 38.8 million tonnes K2O in 2024, up from 37.5 million in 2023, driven by demand growth in Asia and South America; consumption is projected to reach 40.9 million tonnes in 2025.

The most significant supply-chain disruption in recent years was the 2022 EU and US sanctions on Belarus's state-run Belaruskali following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Lithuania simultaneously terminated Belaruskali's contract to export through the Klaipeda port, severing the primary Baltic export route. Belarusian potash was rerouted through Russian Baltic ports and by rail to China. The sanctions shock drove US all-products potash prices to $1,790/t K2O equivalent in 2022. By 2024, Belarus production had almost returned to pre-2022 levels (7.0 million tonnes K2O estimated), and US prices stabilized near $1,220/t. Total world production capacity stood at 65.2 million tonnes K2O per year in 2024 and is projected to grow to 76.0 million tonnes by 2028, primarily from expansion in Laos and Russia, with additional new mines in Brazil, Canada, Ethiopia, Morocco, and Spain planned after 2028.

The United States is approximately 93% net import reliant, sourcing 79% of imports from Canada. Domestic production — 420,000 tonnes K2O equivalent, less than 1% of world output — comes from underground and solution mines in New Mexico (sylvinite and langbeinite) and brine operations in Utah (Great Salt Lake solar evaporation). Despite its high import reliance, potash is not classified as a US Critical Mineral or EU Critical Raw Material, reflecting its status as an agricultural bulk commodity rather than a technologically strategic mineral. The ~250 billion tonne global resource base and multiple commercially active deposits provide ample long-term supply, but geographic concentration of production and export capacity in Canada, Russia, and Belarus creates food-security exposure for large net-importing agricultural economies.